How likely is it to live 130 years in this century?
The number of people living after the age of 100 has increased in recent decades to almost half a million people, and a new study calculates the probability of living at the age of 110, which, although rare, is likely to increase in this age. century.
The oldest person alive, Jeanne Calment of France, was 122 years old when she died in 1997. Currently, the oldest in the world is the Japanese Kane Tanaka, 118 years old.
According to new research conducted by the University of Washington (UW), such extreme longevity is likely to increase by the end of this century, and estimates show that a lifespan of 125 years or even 130 years is possible.
“People are fascinated by the extremes of humanity. Whether we’re talking about landings on the moon, how fast we run to the Olympics, or even how long we can live, ”said lead author Michael Pearce, a UW doctoral student in statistics. “With this work, we are quantifying the probability of a person reaching different extreme ages in this century.”
Longevity is influenced by both governmental and economic policies, but especially by the personal health and life decisions you make.
The new study, published on June 30, 2021 in the journal Demographic Research , uses statistical modeling to examine the extremes of longevity of human life. Taking into account research on aging, the prospects for future medical and scientific discoveries, but also the relatively small number of people who have verifiably reached the age of 110 or more, the experts discussed the possible limits of the maximum age related to death.
While some scientists claim that diseases and damage to basic cells lead to a natural limit to human life, others claim that there is no ceiling, as evidenced by the supercentenarians who set records.
Pearce and Adrian Raftery, a professor of sociology and statistics at UW, took a different approach. They asked what could be the longest human lifespan anywhere in the world until 2100. Using Bayesian statistics, a common tool in modern statistics, the researchers estimated that the 122-year world record would almost certainly be exceeded, by at least one person who could reach the age of 125 to 132 years.
What were the researchers’ findings?
The researchers estimated that the current record for the maximum age at death – Calment’s 122 years, 164 days – was almost 100% likely to be broken. The probability remains strong for a person who lives longer, up to 124 years (99% probability) or even up to 127 years (68% probability).
An even longer lifespan is possible, but the chances of a person living to the age of 130 are estimated at 13%. It is also “extremely unlikely” that a person will reach the age of 135 in this century.
The probability of exceeding the current age record only increases if the number of supercentenarians increases significantly. With a constantly expanding global population, this is not impossible, the researchers believe.
“People who achieve extreme longevity are still rare enough to represent a select population,” Raftery said. “Even with population growth and progress in health care, there is a flattening of the mortality rate after a certain age. In other words, someone who lives up to 110 years has about the same probability of living another year as, say, someone who lives up to 114, that is about half “, adds Raftery.
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